Prognose: Europæisk reklamevækst på 3,8 pct.
I Vesteuropa står media spend i 2016 til en vækst på 3,8 pct. til 100 mia. dollars, godt hjulpet af EM i fodbold.
Det fremgår af de omfattende prognoser, som Mediabrands’ analyseenhed, MAGNA, udarbejder regelmæssigt.
Det globale reklameforbrug står derimod til en vækst på 5,4 pct i år, hvilket vil være den bedste vækst i seks år. Det er bl.a. de store sportsbegivenheder, som OL i Brasilien, der driver fremgangen i den globale ad spend.
Den store kategori “Digital” drives især af stigende mobilannoncering (+44%), flere investeringer i online tv-reklame (+35%) og Search (+14%), mens banner spås et fald (-6%).
Salg af banner-formater falder bl.a. på grund af voksende ad blocking.
En anden trend lyder, at det amerikanske annoncemarked i 2017 vil investere det samme i TV som i alle digitale medier (38,5 pct til hver).
Læs mere her.
Se udvalgte forecasts:
Trends på det globale annoncemarked
Globally, media owner advertising revenues will grow by +5.4% in 2016, to $480 billion, and by +3.1% in 2017. That compares with +4.8% in our previous forecast (Dec. 2015).
The biggest contributors to the higher 2016 growth forecast are the US (revised from +5.7% to +6.2%) and China (from +5.5% to +8.4%). The biggest downward revision comes from Brazil (from +5.0% to +1.9%).
2016’s major events (US elections, UEFA Euro 2016, Olympic Games, Copa America) will boost ad spending. Neutralizing the impact of those cyclical events, media owners ad sales would still grow by +4%.
US advertising sales will grow by +6.2% in 2016 to $179 billion, the strongest growth rate since 2010.
Western Europe advertising revenues will grow by +3.8% to $100 billion, driven by the UEFA Eurol event and assuming “Brexit” does not happen; Eastern Europe advertising sales will increase by +5.3% to $16 billion.
Neutralizing the incremental spending generated by political and Olympic Games (a record $3.5 billion), 2016 advertising growth would be +4.1% (similar to last year) and will slow down to +3.4% in 2017.
US digital advertising sales will equal TV sales for the first time in 2016 (both $68 billion, a market share of 38.5%).
Digital media advertising sales will grow +15% this year while traditional media will be flat (+1%).
Digital media will become the number one media category globally by the end of 2017, as digital advertising sales will reach $192 billion (a 39% market share), surpassing TV at $178 billion (a 36% market share).
Global TV advertising sales will grow by +4.4% to $179 billion and out-of-home (OOH) media by +3.8% to $31 billion). Radio advertising revenues will be flat (-0.2% at $32 billion) and print will continue to decline (-8% to $70 billion).
Digital advertising sales are driven by mobile advertising (+44%), video formats (+35%) and social formats (+43%) and search (+14%) while banner sales will decline (-6%).
Mobile advertising will account for 42% of total digital ads by the end of 2016 and near 50% by the end of 2017.
Linear television advertising sales (+4.4%) will record their strongest growth since 2012, boosted by cyclical events and strong pricing offsetting the continued erosion of viewing.
Kilde: Mediabrands’ analyseenhed MAGNA.